On the back of vehicle rollouts, benign inflation, interest rates cooling off, the automobile industry is expected to grow 6-8 per cent in the current financial year.

The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) forecasts to grow the sales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV) in double digits this fiscal year, bolstered by the improvement in industrial GDP and higher replacement demand. Even though SIAM is not anticipating any surge in volumes during the current festival season, it is expecting the demand to pick up towards the end of FY 2015-16. It may be recalled that automakers had sold more than 2.6 million passenger vehicles in fiscal 2015, a 3.9 per cent increase from the year before.

While announcing the sales figures, Sugato Sen, Deputy Director General, SIAM stated that passenger car and utility segments are expected to grow marginally. “Motorcycle sales are likely to remain flat while scooters segment would also be a bit muted. In commercial vehicle segment, M&HCV segment would grow in double digits while light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment would continue to be in negative territory.” Sen also stated that the withdrawal of export incentives, high vehicle interest rates, and inclusion of certain items in the anti-dumping list, mostly concerning components, are some of the challenges facing the
auto industry.

Meanwhile, passenger vehicle in India rose 9.47 per cent in September, rising for the 11th consecutive month. But a steep fall in utility vehicle volume meant total passenger vehicle sales rose just 3.8 per cent. Motorcycle sales, however, continued to remain in the negative territory with sales in September declining 2.87 per cent as compared to the same period a year ago, as per the data released by SIAM.

In the preceding month, domestic car sales went
up marginally at 169,590 units as compared to 154,898 units in the same month last year. Various car models like Honda’s Jazz, Hyundai’s Creta, and Maruti Suzuki’s S-Cross have received good responses from customers in the domestic market during the month.

“Only a handful of companies like Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai and Honda have been recording positive growth on the back of new product launches. Softening interest rates and comparatively cheaper fuel have also helped the growth in the passenger car segment,” added Sen.

For the first six months of the fiscal year, the passenger vehicle segment posted 6.2 per cent growth, which is in line with the prediction for the year.

Performance in April-Sept

According to SIAM, the industry produced a total of 11,973,025 vehicles including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers in April-September 2015 as against 11,835,239 in April-September 2014, registering a marginal growth of
1.16 per cent over the same period
last year.

The sales of passenger vehicles grew by 6.22 per cent in April-September 2015 over the same period last year. Within the passenger vehicles, passenger cars grew by 9.68 per cent while utility vehicles and vans decreased by -2.56 per cent and
-1.46 per cent during April-September 2015 over the same period last year.

The overall commercial vehicles segment registered a growth of 7.18 per cent in April-September 2015 as compared to same period last year. M&HCVs registered a growth at 33.68 per cent while LCVs declined by -7.41 per cent during April-September 2015 over the same period last year.

Three wheelers sales declined by -10.05 per cent in April-September 2015 over the same period last year. Passenger carrier and goods carrier sales declined by -10.43 per cent and -8.19 per cent, respectively in April-September 2015 over April-September 2014.

Two wheelers sales registered a marginal decline of -0.36 per cent in April-September 2015 over April-September 2014. Within the two-wheelers segment, scooters grew by 9.92 per cent while motorcycles and mopeds dropped by
-4.06 per cent and -5.21 per cent, respectively in April-September 2015 over April-September 2014.

Exports

In April-September 2015, overall automobile exports grew by 7.68 per cent. Passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers registered a growth at 3.89 per cent,
19.57 per cent, 23.43 per cent and 5.74 per cent, respectively in April-September 2015 over April-September 2014.

Segment wise Comparative Production, Domestic Sales & Exports data for the month of September 2015

Cumulative Production, Domestic Sales & Exports data for the period of April-September 2015 and Growth